Last Middle East Jet Fuel tanker to arrive in the UK adds pressure to aviation

Last Middle East Jet Fuel tanker to arrive in the UK adds pressure to aviation

The final known shipment of jet fuel from the Middle East to the UK is expected to arrive this week, highlighting the imminent impact to airlines from the conflict involving Iran, and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.                                                                                                                                                                                                         

The jet fuel, transported by the Libyan flagged Maetiga, is due to reach the UK later this week, according to data from commodity data analytics firms Kpler and Vortexa. There are no other visible UK bound shipments from the region.

Historically, an average of eight jet fuel shipments from the Middle East are enroute to the UK at any given time.

The UK government states there is no immediate cause for concern and is encouraging travellers to book holidays as usual. Yet industry representatives warn that fuel shortages are highly likely as the conflict continues.

In recent months, the UK has sourced more than half of its jet fuel from the Middle East, following the cessation of Russian imports after the invasion of Ukraine and a decline in domestic refining capacity.

Analysis shows that shortages could start to influence airline costs by the end of April. Industry experts note that airlines are already beginning to feel the pinch as rising fuel prices feed through the supply chain and are approximately double those from pre-war levels.

Travellers are facing higher ticket pricing as it is believed that carriers will  pass the burden onto the consumer. There is also the further possibility that airlines will cut back schedules on lower density and less lucrative routes, increasing further disruption this summer.

It is estimated that about 40 per cent of Europe’s jet fuel reserves pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with the UK receiving supplies both directly from the Middle East and indirectly via countries such as the Netherlands and Belgium, all which are facing similar constraints.

Supply pressures may be partially alleviated if traders can redirect shipments from other destinations, though this is expected to intensify competition and inflate prices. European buyers are seeking alternative supplies from West Africa and the United States, with recent deliveries already arriving from Nigeria and increased exports from the US.

The UK government has confirmed that jet fuel shipments continue to arrive from a range of sources, including India, the United States, and the Netherlands. Prime minister Keir Starmer has convened leaders from the energy, shipping, finance, and insurance sectors to coordinate a collective response to the situation.

Market participants emphasise that the system is adapting through rerouting and price adjustments rather than an immediate halt in supply.

Written By Rob Hall